Scott Brown has a lot going for him right now. He has a ton of money, a wave a good publicity surrounding his book, potential opponents are dropping out, and several polls saying he is all but invincible.

Despite all that, and regardless of which Democrat gets nominated to challenge him, I think that Scott Brown is going to have a very hard reelection, and probably lose.

What do Democrats (and this pundit) having going for them?

MATH!!! And about 1,559,464 registered voters. Find out more after the jump.

All joking aside, I really do think that Senator Brown is in significant trouble for reelection, and that Democrats in Massachusetts and Washington should be much more confident about our chances. After having beers with half a dozen political folk and arguing this theory out a few times times, I figured I better write it down now so I can sound smart and contrarian before it is too late.

This idea started to germinate after hearing Democratic Party Chairman John Walsh talk about the January 2009 special election over and over during the Governor’s campaign. While extolling the virtues of getting out the vote (GOTV), he talked about how Scott Brown got as many votes as John McCain got in 2008. A quick jaunt to the Secretary of State’s website can tell us that for sure.

During the special election in 2009, Scott Brown got 1,168,178 votes compared to Martha Coakley’s 1,060,861.

In 2008, the results were McCain/Palin 1,108,854, Obama/Biden 1,904,097

So it isn’t identical, but Scott Brown basically grew McCain’s vote total by about 5%. Martha Coakley, meanwhile, lost 44% off of the President’s vote total. The Coakley campaign doesn’t need any more eulogies, so let’s just say we all know it wasn’t crackerjack. Regardless, whoever challenges Senator Brown will have a secret weapon that Martha Coakley never did:

President Barack Obama.

Brown is seeking reelection in the face of what will be a huge national election. Both sides will be ginned up, and there will be a huge amount of attention on the race. When it gets down to it, it is a Presidential year, that means a lot more people vote! People who don’t usually vote! And in Massachusetts, those people tend to vote for Democrats! Looking at the trends for the past couple of major elections bear this out.

Year 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002
Dem Total 1112283 1904097 1234984 1803800 985981
GOP Total 964866 1108854 784342 1071109 1091988

 

I wish we had 2000 numbers, but that would probably require an actual call to Bill Galvin’s office – a bridge too far. But looking at these, we see about 1.7 million voters in Massachusetts turn out to vote Democratic in a Presidential year compared to 1.1 million Republicans. And, we have a President who remains very popular with the people that elected him and who will be campaigning hard (not so much in Massachusetts, but we still get CNN here). Senator Brown turned out that 1.1 million R-leaning voters but good (and nabbed a bunch of independents) during his election, but that still won’t be enough.

At a minimum, he probably needs to convince 300,000 – 400,000 Massachusetts voters to split their ballot between him and the President or to vote for the Republican Presidential candidate. That is no small order, no matter which Democrat is running against him for Senate.

I am probably being a bit dramatic about the tough road ahead for Senator Brown. As I mentioned during the lede, he has a lot going for him.  Beyond the advantages he already has, he is a enthusiastic and voracious campaigner. If he does win, I think people will unfairly credit it as an easy one while glossing over the scope of the challenge that faces him.

He will also have a lot going against him besides just the numbers. Unlike last time, when his truck seemed fueled by dreams and gumption and the issues section of his website was barely a page long (hey look, it still is!), he will have an actual voting record to defend and be picked apart. Also, by the time the election rolls around he will have been the subject of several efforts by the Democrats and other interest groups to dent his image and make him seem more, not less, like the kind of person an infrequent Massachusetts voter would support. And finally, none of the potential Democratic candidates seem like they will be pushovers – at the very least they will campaign their asses off for fear of being tagged Coakley redux.

But really, Senator Brown isn’t competing with his opponent, or the Democratic establishment of Massachusetts.  He is competing against a popular President and the American public’s tendency to avoid confusing decisions or thinking too much about politics. I wouldn’t take odds against either one.