Governoring in a Recession
Governorships by Party Control
Elliot Spitzer’s columns on Slate have not been particularly interesting or enlightening. He has, generally, stuck to relatively banal forms of conventional wisdom and avoided any controversial positions – even on issues he might have particular expertise in like financial fraud… or hookers (there, I made the joke. God I feel dirty) . That’s why I was pleasantly surprised that his current column hits on an issues I have been thinking about a lot recently and he is uniquely suited to give some insight on.
There has never been a tougher time to be a governor. Governors must deal with all the problems confronting our economy, but they lack the federal government’s ability to run a deficit. With the $787 billion stimulus and sundry other bailout spending, President Obama and Congress have the rather pleasant task of printing gobs of money and throwing it toward favored sectors and projects.
Governors can only gaze on with envy. The numbers from the states are downright horrifying—and getting worse. The best estimate is that states, nearly all of which are constitutionally obligated to balance their budgets, collectively face deficits of about $350 billion over the next 30 months. That is about 20 percent of total state spending.
He goes on to give more details into the variety of ways which Governors are screwed. Governors are facing cratering state revenues, big chunks of their budgets tied up in entitlement spending and they can’t cut costs the way a business could without major political opposition. He also details his own problems trying to reform Medicaid in his state. The whole thing is worth a read.
I have been thinking about this issue in particular because I have seen some bad headlines and poll results for my Governor of choice, Deval Patrick of Massachusetts. A relatively recent poll has him with a 70% disapproval rating and has me totally bummed out. I mean, Mitt Romney looked like a champ because he was Governor during a boom time (and he never really had to do anything, just fight with the legislature) and now my guy is already facing a primary challenge. Deval could still rise to the occasion and come up with some amazing policy solutions, but his power isn’t all-encompassing and I imagine that the recession is also making special interest groups hesitant to engage in sweeping reforms. The problem now is how do Governors up for reelection in 2010 communicate how screwed they are to the electorate. “The Wrong Side of History” doesn’t have the same ring as “Yes we Can.”
This will also affect potential 2012 challengers like Govs Jindal, Palin or Pawlenty. It would be interesting to look back and see if Governors who attained national prominence and a reputation for competence did so during relative boom times. I am thinking in particular of Dukakis and “The Massachusetts Miracle” occurring amidst the backdrop of the entire country coming out of a recession in the mid-80s.
I guess that good news is that since we have 50 states that are facing a roughly 10% budget shortfall, we have 50 different public policy labs. Out of those we might see some of the ideas that will become national models being touted by new nationally prominant figures.